Past PredictionDecember 1968John Z. deloreanGeneral ManagerPontiac Division"I definitely think the powerplant of the future will not be electricity or steam but turbines.''
In 1974, the U.S. had just endured its worst peacetime gasoline shortage and automakers were grappling with new tougher automotive emissions and safety regulations. It was against this backdrop that Motor Trend, then celebrating its 25th anniversary, asked automotive leaders to predict what the automobile would be like in the next 25 years. No wonder some forecast the 80-mpg car and battery-powered transportation would be mainstays, a trend that has flat not materialized.
As Motor Trend now celebrates its 50th anniversary and we stand on the verge of the new millennium, we've again asked automotive experts to gaze into their crystal balls at another quarter century, to the year 2024. Perhaps most importantly, not one predicts the demise of the internal-combustion engine, although they see improved ones; they also see that alternative powertrains will fill niche markets. Obviously computers will play an even greater role in future automobiles.
But the human desire for personal transportation, personal mobility, and personal freedom will burn as hot in 25 years as it did 25 and even 100 years ago. Rest assured, even though many of these predictions sound a bit conservative, there's sure to be plenty of surprises to come.
William Clay Ford Jr.Chairman, Ford Motor Co."The vehicle of the future will be clean. It will, however, continue to offer consumers extraordinary features and enhanced performance and range. It will be fun to drive, while having little impact on the environment. Fuel cell vehicles, as well as advanced, ultraclean internal-combustion engines and other advanced technologies, will greatly reduce ground-level and atmospheric emissions. We'll build vehicles that excite the enthusiast and please the environmentalist, and increasingly they will be the same customer."
John F. Smith Jr.Chairman and Chief Executive OfficerGeneral Motors Corp."Our industry must hyper-accelerate in the next millennium, as consumers demand services-driven transportation packages-personal, fast, global, consistent. Technology leaps to satellite communications in the vehicle [will provide] travel assistance anywhere in the world and instant emergency notification. Consumers will demand an adaptable vehicle-a home computer on wheels that can be updated. Three themes jump out: infotainment, infosecurity, and infoservices."
Thomas T. StallkampPresident, DaimlerChrysler AG"The next 25 years will see more change than the last 25 did. The focus will shift to alternate fuel sources-fuel cells, hybrids. They'll become a larger percentage of the vehicles on the road. But the internal-combustion engine will remain the predominant powertrain. We'll also see the move from sport/utility vehicles into new forms of vehicles with sport/utility attributes like all-wheel drive. But they'll be more lightweight, more fuel efficient, and have better emission controls."
Jacques NasserPresident, Ford Motor Co."Personal transportation means personal freedom. That isn't going to change. We will see improvements in mass transit in densely populated regions of the world, but people will still value access to a vehicle to provide personal mobility and the pleasures that go with it. The personal transportation business is going to get even more personal, allowing our customers much more flexibility and the choice of tailoring specifications and attributes. Vehicles will be created to fulfill particular lifestyle and life-stage needs, while being consistent with environmental, safety, and congestion trends."
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